Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2019 1:22:33 GMT
He's been bearish/short for quite awhile, and it's not over yet - according to Jim:
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MACRO TIDES
The Intersection of Macro Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Review December 31, 2018
After the Rally in S&P 500 Ends Soon, New Lows Expected
Last week I discussed why the S&P 500 was nearing the end of wave 3 which would be followed by a
rally of 150 â 200 S&P points. âThe TRIN readings and the Call/Put Ratio suggest the S&P 500 is in the zip
code and close to finishing wave 3 soon. After wave 4 carries the S&P 500 up by 150 â 200 points, a
decline to a lower low is likely to follow in wave 5 .â The S&P 500 recorded a trading low on December 26
at 2347 and promptly rallied 173 points to a high of 2520 on Friday December 28. Although the S&P 500
may push modestly above 2520 in the next few days, the S&P 500 is expected to fall below 2347
sometime in January.
The 21 day Net percent of Advancing stocks minus Declining stocks closed at -29.1 on December 24
(orange horizontal line), one of the lowest readings since the 1987 crash, 1998 Long Term Capital
Management selloff, September 2001 after 9/11, July 2002, financial crisis in 2008, and downgrade of
U.S. Treasury debt in 2011. In each case the S&P 500 experienced a rally and then a subsequent decline
to a lower low that recorded a less oversold reading on the 21 day Net percent of Advancing stocks
minus Declining stocks.
In the January 2019 issue of Macro Tides (out earlier today), I discussed why a recession is unlikely in
2019 and compared the recent decline to those experienced in 1987, 1998, and 2011. In those prior
declines the S&P 500 fell by 20.0% or more but the economy did not enter a recession. These prior
declines reinforce that it is possible for the S&P 500 to suffer a meaningful decline without a recession.
Investors who believe markets discount the future have inferred that the stock market is âtellingâ them
the economy is weak and may enter a recession before the end of 2019. Based on what is known today
the odds of a recession beginning in the next 6 months is less than 20%. That could certainly change if
the trade and tariff dispute with China becomes an all out trade war.
The technical pattern of prior high energy selloffs indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to decline below
2347 whether a recession develops later in 2019 or not. In each case the initial momentum low was
followed by a rally and subsequent decline to a lower low usually within 3 months.
Although the 21 day Net percent of Advancing stocks minus Declining stocks did not drop below -25.0%
(orange horizontal line) in August 2015 or January 2016, the pattern in the oscillator and S&P 500 were
the same as in the prior occurrences in 1987, 1990, 1998, 2002, 2008-2009, and 2011.
The odds certainly favor another decline in the S&P 500 below 2347 before a more significant and
protracted rally can take hold.
At the open on January 2 established a 33% short position by purchasing the 1 to 1 inverse S&P 500
ETF SH as long as the S&P 500 is above 2470 and increase it to 66% if the S&P 500 trades above 2520.
Cover half of the position if the S&P 500 drops below 2347.
The intensity of the drop into December 24 creates the possibility that the 2347 low was wave 3 of 3 and
the rally off 2347 is wave 4 of 3. The implication is the same in the short term â the S&P 500 will fall
below 2347. The difference in this pattern is that after a decline below 2347, the S&P 500 would rally at
least back to 2520 for wave 4 from the high at 2940. The S&P 500 would then be expected to decline to
yet another lower low before the pattern fro m the high at 2940 is complete.
From its low in February 2016 at 1810 to the September 2018 high of 2940, the S&P 500 rallied 1130
points. A 50% retracement would target 2375 which was exceeded on December 24. The 61.8%
retracement is 2242. The red trend line connecting the March 2009 low with subsequent lows in
October 2011 and February 2016 comes in near 2300.
At what S&P 500 level should cash be committed?
Irrespective of how this decline finishes the expectation is that once a low is in place the S&P 500 is
likely to retrace at least 50% of the decline from 2940. If wave 5 bottoms at 2300, the S&P 500 would
rebound to 2620 if the retracement is 50%, and to 2695 if it is 61.8% of the 640 point decline from 2940.
If the low turns out to be 2200, the 50% retracement would lift the S&P 500 back to 2570 and to 2657 if
it is 61.8% of the 740 point drop from 2940.
Since it is not possible to know whether the low will be 2300 or 2200 or even 2100, the 50%
retracement levels should be above 2347 irrespective of the precise low. This suggests that if the S&P
500 does fall below 2347 some amount of cash should be committed since the S&P 500 is likely to trade
above that entry point in the first half of 2019. I will do my best to identify an entry point if the S&P 500
does approach 2347, but conceptually this is the framework to use.
Tactical U.S. Sector Rotation Model Portfolio
Relative Strength Ranking
The U.S Sector Rotation Portfolio was moved 33% into cash/money market at 2738.30 on November 6,
66% into cash/money market when the S&P 500 opened at 2774.13 on November 7, and moved 100%
into cash/money market fund as the S&P 500 moved above 2800. The average exit price was 2770.81.
The U.S Sector Rotation Portfolio established a 33% short position in an inverse S&P 500 ETF (SH) at
$28.35, when the S&P 500 traded above 2800 on November 7. Half of the position was covered when
the S&P 500 traded under 2650 and SH was trading at $29.97. When the S&P 500 exceeded 2730 on
November 28, the 25% that was sold when the S&P 500 traded under 2650 was bought with SH trading
at $29.03. This position was closed at the open on December 11 when SH opened at $29.60. The 16.5%
position established on November 7 when SH was trading at $28.35 was closed on December 20 when
SH was trading at $31.81.
The MTI fell below the blue horizontal trend line on November 21 so the probability of a bear market
increased. The MTI signal is one reason why I have favored looking for the opportunity to go short rather
than trying to play a counter trend bounce from the long side. That may change once the S&P 500
appears to have completed 5 waves down from the September peak.
Jim Welsh