Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m

onefreetrajectory
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 14:15:16 GMT

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Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 14:15:16 GMT

in peak annual sales.

From the MF article.

For starters, Wall Street and investors aren't certain that Rayaldee will sell particularly well as a treatment for secondary hyperparathyroidism in patients with stage 3 or 4 chronic kidney disease and vitamin D insufficiency. Once believed to have blockbuster peak sales potential, some analysts question whether it'll even make it to $500 million in peak annual sales.

What analysts by name are doing the questioning? Any reports available? First time I have ever heard this. If they mean 500m in 2016, thats one thing for ramping up, but for a 12bn market in the US alone and no other effective treatment options for stage 3 & 4 CKD, I want to see this rationale.

Last Edit: Oct 9, 2015 14:42:28 GMT by onefreetrajectory: typo correction

Chuck-2 Supreme Member Posts: 691 OPKO Investment: Long Sentiment: Bullish Recommendation: Buy Sept 30, 2015 17:29:02 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 14:29:21 GMT via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Chuck-2 on Oct 9, 2015 14:29:21 GMT It is a ridiculous assumption. (500m or less)

stcks
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 14:35:30 GMT via Tapatalk sgard434 likes this

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Post by stcks on Oct 9, 2015 14:35:30 GMT

MF has never been a fan of OPK. They keep on putting out this 500 mm in "PEAK" sales. If you believe this sell the stock. Rayaldee is first and best in class in a 12 billion market. MF's premise is that they're only get 500 million or 4.16% of the market. As I stated earlier at 7.5 times sales every $1 billion in sales is equal to 13.05 pps. This stock has room to move.

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icemandios
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 14:44:19 GMT sgard434 likes this

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Post by icemandios on Oct 9, 2015 14:44:19 GMT

Oct 9, 2015 14:15:16 GMT onefreetrajectory said:

What analysts by name are doing the questioning? Any reports available? First time I have ever heard this. If they mean 500m in 2016, thats one thing for ramping up, but for a 12n market in the US alone and no other effective treatment options for stage 3 & 4 CKD, I want to see this rationale.

Oppenheimer would be my guess. Ever wonder why they are called "sell-side analysts?" Sell-side analysts are the only ones who put their "work product" out there for free. You have to shell out cash for "buy-side" analysis.

onefreetrajectory
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 14:47:39 GMT Chuck-2 likes this

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Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 14:47:39 GMT

I think its BS and it pisses me off that this gets published without a reference by name and a cited analysis so that there is the possibility of some accountability to that person or group's reputation for this drivel

icemandios OpkoDD Moderator [TI0] Posts: 16,831 Sept 30, 2015 17:37:42 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 15:30:55 GMT sgard434, drangled, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by icemandios on Oct 9, 2015 15:30:55 GMT Well, there is the possibility that there is no such analyst. Or if there is one, the identity of same would be laughable.

onefreetrajectory
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 16:00:26 GMT icemandios and drangled like this

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Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 16:00:26 GMT

Oct 9, 2015 15:30:55 GMT icemandios said:

Well, there is the possibility that there is no such analyst. Or if there is one, the identity of same would be laughable.

I'm going with Probability

stcks Eternal 6 rules of successful biotech investing-"RESEARCH, RESEARCH, RESEARCH, PATIENCE, CAPITAL & RESEARCH" Posts: 3,850 OPKO Investment: Long Sentiment: Bullish Recommendation: Hold Sept 30, 2015 15:29:56 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 16:29:35 GMT via Tapatalk onefreetrajectory and icemandios like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by stcks on Oct 9, 2015 16:29:35 GMT I love it we can say anything we want we just need to add "some analysts say"
	6 rules of successful biotech investing-"RESEARCH, RESEARCH, RESEARCH, PATIENCE, CAPITAL & RESEARCH"

Deleted Deleted Member Posts: 0 May 16, 2024 14:16:06 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 16:41:01 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2015 16:41:01 GMT Publish rubbish, buy up.

sgard434 Supreme Member Posts: 895 Sept 30, 2015 16:34:38 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 9, 2015 17:24:55 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by sgard434 on Oct 9, 2015 17:24:55 GMT And when did MF stop accepting comments? Lowers their credibility even more...

Deleted
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 10, 2015 3:42:31 GMT stcks, Chuck-2, and 1 more like this

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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 3:42:31 GMT

Lets talk common sense about this $500MM number. Say Opko prices it low and the price is $1,000 per year. If 500,000 patients(2.5%) out of a 20MM patient population take the drug then you get to that number. Please tell me how any analyst on the street can come to such a conclusion. Adoption of 2.5% for a disease that has a dramatic effect on the body and eventually leads to Kidney failure. And a price for the drug of only $1,000. Both those numbers are insane. I expect min 10% adoption on the drug and pricing b/t $2,500-5000. Those mins get me to $2.5B in sales. Yes thats with a B. What on earth are these analysts smoking, cause I want some. Or maybe in this case I don't. Long. Getting Longer, will be insanely long if it stays this low. Good luck to you all, use your common sense, it will prevail in the end.

Deleted
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 10, 2015 18:04:43 GMT stcks and icemandios like this

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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 18:04:43 GMT

One of the OPK senior staffer, in answer to my question in 2011, Why does DR Frost buy so much OPK stock? answered "Rayaldee." Take it for what it's worth. That's what I was told. Check it out for yourselves.

Deleted Deleted Member Posts: 0 May 16, 2024 14:16:06 GMT	Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 10, 2015 20:50:51 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 20:50:51 GMT Opko didn't buy cytochroma until 1/8/2013

Deleted
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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 10, 2015 21:10:01 GMT

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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 21:10:01 GMT

It's very hard to know what the # will be. Just reread the January 2013 cytochroma corporate presentation. One of the pages stated that they would take 35% to 50% market share --a potential 1 billion $ market opportunity.

this had bio trends research group 2010 in the footnotes

Forward to June 2013 presentation and opko changed the $1 billion to $12 billion but the footnote remained the same.

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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m Oct 11, 2015 0:15:54 GMT sgard434 and sspanier2012 like this

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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 0:15:54 GMT

Rayaldee-A late stage long acting Vitamin D without affecting enzyme levels as all other treatments do for end stage renal patients. This will be the first slow acting release form of Vitamin D which in both Phase 1 and 2 trials have successfully shown that since it is released so slowly into the blood, it does not cause the potentially dangerous release of inhibitory enzymes that all other treatments do.

This would be a game changer upon approval due to it’s reduced risk and increased efficacy to current treatments. OPKO expects sales should reach $6B/yr, other estimates go as high as $6B just in the U.S. And 2-3x as much worldwide. PDUFA date May 2016 with additional trials planned for other kidney and oncology all indications.

I have a friend whose wife is a very prominent Nephrologist here where we live (major City). I asked him to ask her about Rayaldee and this was the resoponse:

"She said that if such a drug were available and did what it is supposed to be able to do, it might be given to almost everyone with end-stage renal disease. I would think that is worth a risk of investment in the company."

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Analysts question Rayaldee sales, expect less that $500m

Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 14:15:16 GMT

Post by Chuck-2 on Oct 9, 2015 14:29:21 GMT

Post by stcks on Oct 9, 2015 14:35:30 GMT

Post by icemandios on Oct 9, 2015 14:44:19 GMT

Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 14:47:39 GMT

Post by icemandios on Oct 9, 2015 15:30:55 GMT

Post by onefreetrajectory on Oct 9, 2015 16:00:26 GMT

Post by stcks on Oct 9, 2015 16:29:35 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2015 16:41:01 GMT

Post by sgard434 on Oct 9, 2015 17:24:55 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 3:42:31 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 18:04:43 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 20:50:51 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 21:10:01 GMT

Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 0:15:54 GMT

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