Aurinia Pharma (AUPH)

Strong pipeline? Lol. It's one drug, but it is a very promising drug. There are no near-term catalysts lol. Let's be more accurate

Some good points on Aurinia.  I agree that the success of phase 2 has significantly reduced the risk.

For those who are newer to me and some others in OPK, phase 2 successes are not much more or less indicative of phase 3 successes. We had a drug for wet AMD:

MIAMI, Mar 06, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- OPKO Health, Inc. (NYSE Alternext US:OPK)today announced that, following the recommendation of the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC), it had decided to terminate its Phase III clinical study of Bevasiranib, a first-in-class siRNA, for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (wet-AMD). Although preliminary data, needing further analysis, show activity of Bevasiranib when used adjunctively with Genentech's Lucentis(R),review of the data by the IDMC indicated that the trial, as structured, was unlikely to meet its primary end point. There were no systemic safety issues identified and local ocular safety was generally unremarkable.

"While we are clearly disappointed with the preliminary results of this fully-enrolled study, the indications of activity are encouraging and we look forward to fully analyzing the data in the coming weeks," said Dr. Phillip Frost, Chairman and CEO of OPKO Health. "We remain committed to the continued development of our siRNA portfolio targeting Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF), including our recently announced VEGFA165b sparing siRNA." These new proprietary siRNA's are designed to inhibit the angiogenic Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A165 (VEGFA165 isoform) but spare the anti-angiogenic VEGFA165b isoform.

To what degree to successes in Ph2 fail in Ph3?

What is unexpected, however, is the percentage of “confirmatory” Phase III trials that fail—about 50%.1,2 Theoretically, if early-phase trials provide the necessary criteria for moving a drug program to Phase III testing, relatively few Phase III trials should fail; but that is not the case.

link

So, if 70% of drug trials fail in Ph2, and 50% of drug trials fail in Ph3, out of 100 drug trials, 30 make it to Ph3, and 15 make it to the winner's circle. And then........and then.........not all of those get FDA approval for one reason or another.

Get excited about a Ph2 success, trade the bump if you will. Invest if you will. But don't mistake the odds of going from Ph2 to the completion of Ph3. And don't forget the approval of a NDA. Especially those who believe the FDA is impartial, or the SEC is here to protect the small guy, or the gummint is here to help you. Always remember it takes a lot of money to become an elected public servant. An unelected public servant doesn't draw the same attention to the same degree of funding, but they are just people who have needs and dreams.