Fundamental Valuation

Here is a basic look. I give conservative numbers for Rayaldy(and more), which if uptake is strong, could dramatically change the valuation to the upside.

Conservative Opko Valuation (3 years)

Rev(MM) Discount Adjusted Multiple MV Notes
Rayaldy 600.00 100% 600.00 7.50 4,500.00 5% penetration off 12B market
Rolipitant 50.00 100% 50.00 7.50 375.00 Assuming Rolipitant is sucessful
HgH 350.00 50% 175.00 7.50 1,312.50 Assuming market leader - Discount for Approval and market leader status
4K Score 200.00 100% 200.00 7.50 1,500.00 Test should ramp up - No reason it shouldn't
Hemophelia 200.00 50% 100.00 7.50 750.00 Approval Risk - Adoption should be substantially more if approved
Other Pipeline - 0% - 1,500.00 Very Conservative Given just peptide platform
BRLI 1,200.00 100% 1,200.00 1.25 1,500.00 Minimal Rev growth (Low Multpile Busn)
Other Assets 1,000.00 Includes all strategic Investments
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Total 12437.5

Shares Outstanding(3 years out) 575

Price Target 21.63


Let me know your thoughts.
S

Arkansas - How do you mean? 4-6 Billion for what/which over 4 years??

Yes, I agree on Rayaldy. That being said it is very uncertain. If uptake is strong then you could see double my estimate. I am going conservative with my estimates and it gives me what I believe is a great margin of safety. Long!

Why didn't MF site any sources which have stated that Rayaldee won't bring in as much revenue as first anticipated?

I'm calling IR tomorrow and seeing what the girl says about what the Company position is on MF writing articles and making allegations that are not cited with credible references, and also what the Company position is on this issue.  The Company has claims drastically higher sales potential up like 12B, and I want to know what it has to say about this article.

If any article is written that is libelous I feel the company has an obligation to defend it and the shareholders.  Some may say, "Well the company isn't going to respond to articles."

Well everybody sees that this is obvious it's not going to defend the shareholders against these types of articles as evidenced in the $19-$8 PPS in 5 months. 

I guess results will speak louder than any article, but so far, obvious , that is lacking too.

Agreed Ice. You can't just write in to complain about any article you don't like. There are opinions on both sides and likely if we got an article that stated what someone might want another would take offense to it.

To all, make sure you continue to do your DD and keep up with everything. Follow all updates from Opko and other competitors in the marketplace. For me Opko is a substantial position so I might sure I follow throughout the day and spend 5 min each night making sure I didn't miss any news or something. I would leave in a split second if things got strange, but everything the company has given us over the past 3 years has been great news so I continue to be aggressively long. Good luck to all.