Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2016 15:33:51 GMT
A lot of these threads seem to be isolated in the biotech space, so I apologize if I'm not following normal practice with this thread.
If you've been paying attention to solar stocks recently, they've been getting beat pretty hard. Seems to be because of a relatively bleak across-the-board 2017 guidance (due to projects being crammed into 2016 with a potentially expiring tax incentive).
I'll admit, 2017 does look very bleak, but 2018+ look strong.
The result is that FSLR, who in many minds is the most attractive solar stock (strong balance sheet, lots of cash on hand, etc.), is trading at a deep discount to book value.
Current PPS is ~$39 and book value is ~$55.
Is anyone here jumping in? Right now it's my second largest position after OPK, and I think that there are some interesting catalysts coming up that can make the future very bright.
1) Likely HRC presidency, would push solar and other renewables.
2) Paris Climate Agreement should be taking formal effect this week. This could be a massive push for solar. Overall, I think the world is taking climate change more seriously, and solar is poised to be a major player in this.
3) Series 5 coming in 2017.
Anybody else have any thoughts on solar / FSLR?
Bearish case (to my understanding):
-Commoditization of panels... panels are getting ever-cheaper, and currently there's a bit of a supply glut, which has affected solar stock performance recently.
-China... many are saying Chinese companies are going to come out on top with solar. I don't necessarily see that, but to be fair I can't fully articulate these arguments.
-Cheap oil... this is mostly a non-issue, as I'm sure everyone here expects oil to continue to rebound.
If you've been paying attention to solar stocks recently, they've been getting beat pretty hard. Seems to be because of a relatively bleak across-the-board 2017 guidance (due to projects being crammed into 2016 with a potentially expiring tax incentive).
I'll admit, 2017 does look very bleak, but 2018+ look strong.
The result is that FSLR, who in many minds is the most attractive solar stock (strong balance sheet, lots of cash on hand, etc.), is trading at a deep discount to book value.
Current PPS is ~$39 and book value is ~$55.
Is anyone here jumping in? Right now it's my second largest position after OPK, and I think that there are some interesting catalysts coming up that can make the future very bright.
1) Likely HRC presidency, would push solar and other renewables.
2) Paris Climate Agreement should be taking formal effect this week. This could be a massive push for solar. Overall, I think the world is taking climate change more seriously, and solar is poised to be a major player in this.
3) Series 5 coming in 2017.
Anybody else have any thoughts on solar / FSLR?
Bearish case (to my understanding):
-Commoditization of panels... panels are getting ever-cheaper, and currently there's a bit of a supply glut, which has affected solar stock performance recently.
-China... many are saying Chinese companies are going to come out on top with solar. I don't necessarily see that, but to be fair I can't fully articulate these arguments.
-Cheap oil... this is mostly a non-issue, as I'm sure everyone here expects oil to continue to rebound.