Posts Removed fm Uncle's OpkoDD Closing Decision

Neither pithy nor trenchant, but a thinly veiled defense per usual. 

Screed? Hardly. "Only the owners of 22.4 million shares cared enough.....", no need to continue. Because One Dollar and Twenty-Three cents tells you who cares. And who doesn't.

When you come up with something more than median prices, number of up/down/flat days in the past arbitrarily chosen time frame, or break up analyses, then perhaps someday you too will be able to be a loud, drowning opinion filled with clever sarcasm . I predict that when the stock "jumps" to $1.50 or $2.00, you will embark on such an intrepid endeavor. But, as anyone following along at opkodd knows, even a double from here, which will bo doubt be touted as an amazing run, monetized by a sale worthy of Druckenmiller, Frosty will still be down about 50% on his open market purchases.

Until then, at least you worthily reflect his record, with tales of sound and fury, signifying...I'm not sure what.

Then again, I suppose we're all 'driving looking in the rear view mirror', right?

YTD Return
OPK
-18.75%
S&P 500
21.37%

1-Year Return
OPK
-18.75%
S&P 500
21.36%

3-Year Return
OPK
-71.54%
S&P 500
20.18%

5-Year Return
OPK
-48.54%
S&P 500
72.75%

Meaningless drivel right? Especially when we're up 37 pennies from an all time low lol. Now, THAT's the important stat.

I think he left his fastball at Ivax. But I wouldn't mind being wrong about that.



I don't think you actually meant what you wrote there. How about "God willing, both of them work out?"

Sarcasm is my love language.

I think you'll find my position on Dr. Frost was establish long before your second coming screeds. The difference being I sent in an e-mail. As expected, it was not answered nor acted on. 

"Blessed is he who expects nothing,
For he is never disappointed."
-The Reverend Ice

Last year the allusions to a return to profitability were stated as a goal, by both Zerhouni and Logal. Zerhouni was a bit loose with his words when he also added a time element. Even though it was a "hope" he framed it as a possibility for the end of the year. So, call it Q4 '23. That did not happen. Perhaps more disappointing than the failure to achieve the goal was the fact that any timeline at all was mentioned. That's a mistake which a seasoned CEO would not make. Broad goals are one thing. After all, this company has been recording more than $500 million in annual revenue FOR NEARLY A DECADE. So if he did not at least raise the subject of profitability as an objective, his role as President and Co-Vice COB (an unnecessary mouthful) would be impugned. But attaching even vague timing to the goal was an amateur mistake.

In the Q4 call, the word 'profitability' was mentioned no less than five times. Once in Frost's opening remarks, twice each by EZ and AL. Logal was the most specific: "breakeven by the middle of 2024 and profitability by the end of the year." EZ frankly disappointed again: he sent a different signal from his 2023 statements when he said that he was confident that the efforts to improve financial metrics will "return this segment to profitability in the next few years." Huh? I thought he said last year he was hoping for profitability by the end of THAT year. Now he's 'confident' that BRLI will return to profitability (which itself is a poor choice of words...save for Covid, it was NEVER profitable under Frost's management) in the' next few years'? Meanwhile, in Frost's opening comments, he assured us that they were 'laser focused on returning this segment to profitability in the near term.'

So, two fairly specific estimations of timing, one actually quite specific (from Logal), and one generic goal.

Perhaps you will assess my observations as picking at nits. But I'm certain that I'm not. When management sends mixed signals, such as those outlined above, investors demur. That is a fact. There are exceptions. I listened to the entire Q1 Tesla conference call last night with my son. Elon can often be quite vague, sometimes dismissive of analyst questions, and can change his tune seemingly on a whim. He is indeed mercurial. But he is ALWAYS the smartest person in the room, perhaps only rivaled by the production and operational geniuses who also answer investor and analyst questions on these calls. And......he's delivered. In a huge way. Since 6/1/15, the Big Bang Origin of Frost Universal Destruction of the Opko Universe, TSLA management has given shareholders a 770% return.

Musk has the leeway to be vague. Elias Zerhouni does not. We can allow for unprofessional behavior with Frost and Logal. They're hacks. They've proven that in spades for nine years. But Elias Zerhouni is a world class scientist. If he can convince Frost to step aside, reconstitute the BOD, and then lead the search for a real CEO, then predictions of profits will be taken seriously. And how those profits are employed will not be called into question.

You say that "Opko is finally turning the corner into profitability..." So we've been told. And we know that the market is a forward looking mechanism. So, it should follow that if breakeven is imminent, and profitability only months away, then the stock should reflect those eventualities, yes? So why is the stock barely over one dollar? While WGS has a LONG way to go to get even anywhere near the prices when Stueland was hired, the stock does seem to have risen from the dead. As CEO she has forecast profitability in 2025 (when during that year is different question). So, her timeline is longer than that put forth by Opko. But her stock, again still quite depressed, has risen tenfold off its lows. Opko's stock, under Frost, has experienced the opposite, a twist on decimation: not removal of one-tenth, but rather leaving only one-tenth.

Opko's investors are indeed discounting profitability right around the corner. They are also discounting Phil Frost, and the lack of visibility regarding seasoned CEO replacement . And the discount rates being applied to that one reality, and the other potentiality being realized, are very different indeed.

And the reality is that it's April 24 and these guys still haven't informed investors when the Q1 results will be released. If I were on record with my audience, saying the equivalent of : "tune in next week, for the exciting conclusion of....", I'd be excited to share my progress with the group whose sponsorship has a direct relationship to my wealth. I'd be anxious to get those results into the hands and minds of those with money. But.....nothing; I guess we'll get the typical recent 'two minute warning' sometime in the next two weeks......when most investors have already tuned out of earnings season.When you run a company as if it were a lemonade stand, that's the value which you are accorded.