Target of the Day

icemandios OpkoDD Moderator [TI0] Posts: 16,804 Sept 30, 2015 17:37:42 GMT	Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 14:08:45 GMT sgard434 and miamianne67 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by icemandios on Mar 28, 2024 14:08:45 GMT The bottom of the big gap on 1/4/24 was 1.22, and that represents the most obvious point of resistance for the day, at least. (And everybody knows that.)
	Last Edit: Mar 28, 2024 14:14:13 GMT by icemandios

lookingforatenbagger
Eternal

Posts: 3,530

OPKO Investment: Long
Sentiment: Neutral
Recommendation: Buy

Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 15:27:33 GMT

Quote

Post by lookingforatenbagger on Mar 28, 2024 15:27:33 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 14:08:45 GMT icemandios said:

The bottom of the big gap on 1/4/24 was 1.22, and that represents the most obvious point of resistance for the day, at least. (And everybody knows that.)

The absurdity of Opko's market cap has been exposed. Yesterday at the close the market cap was $735M for the whole company. Today they sold 20% of BRL for $237.5M. The share price is up 11 cents on the announcement or an increased market cap of $77M.

Ignoring any future growth on the pharma side Opko's FY23 total revenue was $863M. That breaks down as $515M from services, $167M from products and $180M from transfers. The $100M in revenue being sold is is ~12% of total revenue.

Opko has sold less than 20% of BRL for $237M. Let's assume it is the best part and the rest is worth less than 1/2 of the $948M implied by the sale. The remaining 80% would be ~$400M making BRL a total of $637M of the yesterday's closing market cap of $735M. Clearly products and transfers are much more than that.

Brandolini's Law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.

luxetvox
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Posts: 1,458

Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 15:42:06 GMT

Quote

Post by luxetvox on Mar 28, 2024 15:42:06 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 15:27:33 GMT lookingforatenbagger said:

Mar 28, 2024 14:08:45 GMT icemandios said:

The bottom of the big gap on 1/4/24 was 1.22, and that represents the most obvious point of resistance for the day, at least. (And everybody knows that.)

The absurdity of Opko's market cap has been exposed. Yesterday at the close the market cap was $735M for the whole company. Today they sold 20% of BRL for $237.5M. The share price is up 11 cents on the announcement or an increased market cap of $77M.

Ignoring any future growth on the pharma side Opko's FY23 total revenue was $863M. That breaks down as $515M from services, $167M from products and $180M from transfers. The $100M in revenue being sold is is ~12% of total revenue.

Opko has sold less than 20% of BRL for $237M. Let's assume it is the best part and the rest is worth less than 1/2 of the $948M implied by the sale. The remaining 80% would be ~$400M making BRL a total of $637M of the yesterday's closing market cap of $735M. Clearly products and transfers are much more than that.

One of these millennia you will learn point #1, and acknowledge point #2:

1. Opko never was, currently is not, nor ever will be a value stock. The Healthcare sector as a whole is not viewed by the pros through the lens of Value Investing.

2. The record of Management Effectiveness is the largest component being factored into the stock price.

Rather than speculating on the math, I would recommend that you call Adam Logal, and press him for information, as Bill and I have.

Last Edit: Mar 28, 2024 15:44:43 GMT by luxetvox

lookingforatenbagger
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OPKO Investment: Long
Sentiment: Neutral
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Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 15:47:00 GMT

Quote

Post by lookingforatenbagger on Mar 28, 2024 15:47:00 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 15:42:06 GMT luxetvox said:

Mar 28, 2024 15:27:33 GMT lookingforatenbagger said:

The absurdity of Opko's market cap has been exposed. Yesterday at the close the market cap was $735M for the whole company. Today they sold 20% of BRL for $237.5M. The share price is up 11 cents on the announcement or an increased market cap of $77M.

Ignoring any future growth on the pharma side Opko's FY23 total revenue was $863M. That breaks down as $515M from services, $167M from products and $180M from transfers. The $100M in revenue being sold is is ~12% of total revenue.

Opko has sold less than 20% of BRL for $237M. Let's assume it is the best part and the rest is worth less than 1/2 of the $948M implied by the sale. The remaining 80% would be ~$400M making BRL a total of $637M of the yesterday's closing market cap of $735M. Clearly products and transfers are much more than that.

One of these millennia you will learn point #1, and acknowledge point #2:

1. Opko never was, currently is not, nor ever will be a value stock. The Healthcare sector as a whole is not viewed by the pros through the lens of Value Investing.

2. The record of Management Effectiveness is the largest component being factored into the stock price.

Rather than speculating on the math, I would recommend that you call Adam Logal, and press him for information, as Bill and I have.

Thank you for your repetitive, unhelpful advice. We will have to agree to disagree.

Brandolini's Law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.

luxetvox
Legendary

Posts: 1,458

Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 16:20:04 GMT

Quote

Post by luxetvox on Mar 28, 2024 16:20:04 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 15:47:00 GMT lookingforatenbagger said:

Mar 28, 2024 15:42:06 GMT luxetvox said:

One of these millennia you will learn point #1, and acknowledge point #2:

1. Opko never was, currently is not, nor ever will be a value stock. The Healthcare sector as a whole is not viewed by the pros through the lens of Value Investing.

2. The record of Management Effectiveness is the largest component being factored into the stock price.

Rather than speculating on the math, I would recommend that you call Adam Logal, and press him for information, as Bill and I have.

Thank you for your repetitive, unhelpful advice. We will have to agree to disagree.

You're welcome!! Oh, I forgot the third point you will one day have to write on the blackboard like Bart Simpson:

Lux has been right
Lux has been right
Lux has been right
Lux has been right
As was DNR08
As was DNR08
As was DNR08
As was DNR08

Maybe after 100x it'll sink in.

Funny how today Opko did EXACTLY what my Annual Meeting question suggested.

Now, if Elias would just agree to dinner, I could tell him what he must ultimately do. Because if he doesn't, his 40 millions shares of Opko will still be drowning in negative ME.

wsucougarbill
Full Member

Posts: 158

Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 16:24:59 GMT via mobile gutset likes this

Quote

Post by wsucougarbill on Mar 28, 2024 16:24:59 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 15:47:00 GMT lookingforatenbagger said:

Mar 28, 2024 15:42:06 GMT luxetvox said:

One of these millennia you will learn point #1, and acknowledge point #2:

1. Opko never was, currently is not, nor ever will be a value stock. The Healthcare sector as a whole is not viewed by the pros through the lens of Value Investing.

2. The record of Management Effectiveness is the largest component being factored into the stock price.

Rather than speculating on the math, I would recommend that you call Adam Logal, and press him for information, as Bill and I have.

Thank you for your repetitive, unhelpful advice. We will have to agree to disagree.

You can agree to disagree all you want. What the other 99.9899% of the market is saying to you, right this instant, is that Frost is more likely than not to use this money to bolster Opko’s position in Non Invasive Monitoring Systems, or piss it away reviving Claros, instead of doing something productive with it.

So great first step for sure, time to show some of that Management Effectiveness.

lookingforatenbagger
Eternal

Posts: 3,530

OPKO Investment: Long
Sentiment: Neutral
Recommendation: Buy

Target of the Day Mar 28, 2024 16:45:58 GMT

Quote

Post by lookingforatenbagger on Mar 28, 2024 16:45:58 GMT

Mar 28, 2024 16:24:59 GMT wsucougarbill said:

Mar 28, 2024 15:47:00 GMT lookingforatenbagger said:

[in response to Luxetvox] Thank you for your repetitive, unhelpful advice. We will have to agree to disagree.

You can agree to disagree all you want. What the other 99.9899% of the market is saying to you, right this instant, is that Frost is more likely than not to use this money to bolster Opko’s position in Non Invasive Monitoring Systems, or piss it away reviving Claros, instead of doing something productive with it.

So great first step for sure, time to show some of that Management Effectiveness.

I understand it is a great first step. I don't think it is enough to drive us past the collar the $1.15 conversion price of the 2029 notes has on Opko's range. I like being at the top of the range much better than at the bottom.

The next step I'd like to see is management selling the remaining 80% of BRl and ending Opko's long suffering nightmare. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but I think management has been trying for a while now and this sale is just the first piece. I also think Dr. Zerhouni has greater influence in how that money will be spent than "the other 99.9899% of the market is saying."

We shall see. Have a Great Easter.

Last Edit: Mar 28, 2024 16:51:59 GMT by lookingforatenbagger

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