Frosty bought 511,000 shares today

And another million on 1/16/24 between .9377 and  .9821.


ir.stockpr.com/opko/sec-filings-email/content/0000950170-24-004693/ownership.html

I BOUGHT 1k !!!!!

Jane bought 150,000 today so we got that going for us.

I thought so too. I can't recall Form 4's being filed same day by either of them in the past. If they actually think that we're falling for it, then we're really in deep dung. 

Sell the lab already. My bet is that you've tried and there are no takers. They'd rather buy at the auction. And then sell off part of the Ngenla royalty stream. And then......well, everyone here knows the remaining steps in my recipe for saving Opko.

I realize that. Auction is used here as a figure of speech, not in the sense of liquidation. One of the big questions is: why hasn't BRLI already been sold?
1. Per my post, they've tried and there were no takers.
2. They tried and received an offer which Frost turned down.
3. They haven't yet tried because they want it to turn it around first, get to profitability, and then sell from a position of strength.

DGX & LH are valued by investors at about 1.5x revenue. Those are much larger businesses. DGX is projected to produce a little over $1 billion in profit in 2024; LH, $1.2 billion +. That's net income. And businesses growing the top line. What is BRLI worth as a break even, or barely profitable, enterprise? DGX/LH only drop 6-8% to the bottom line. To value BRLI, one needs to work back from the two established competitors financial profile and respective valuations. So even at $600 million in revenue, Logal basically admitted that BRLI would MAYBE break even. And the lab needs meaningful growth to even get to $600 million. If a 7% net income lab is worth 1.5x revenue, what's a breakeven lab worth? Maybe 1x, if you're lucky. What about a lab losing $50 million + per year? 0.75x revenue? It's all guesswork. But an educated guess is that a $400 million sale price for BRLI, at its present revenue and loss runs rate, would be a windfall.

So, if they grant an audience, my first question will be framed as follows: how many offers have you received for the lab, and what were the prices? If the answer is number 3 above, that tells you one thing, namely that they really haven't done the simple math from above. That is, it's not worth that much more as a breakeven/barely profitable lab than it currently is as a money losing lab, because DGX or LH are going to buy the contracts and business lines and wring out 6-8% profit from the whole thing in short order, whatever its current profit profile.

If the answer is number 1, then next question is, what were the objections? And if the objections are specious, it simply means that the buyers are looking to purchase at a lowball price, hence the auction terminology. And they might be doing that because the pros at DGX and LH can make the same assessments of BRLI, of Frost et al, and of the futility of having a research scientist run a lab that Bill and I have made

If answer is number 2, and the price was anything near $400 million, that will give us more evidence that Frost has lost his deal making judgement and abilities. And if that is the answer, and Zerhouni doesn't look constipated, then he isn't the guy who will be able to resurrect the stock from it's death spiral.

And he bought another 400,000 shares today @ 0.9655.
Tune in tomorrow for another chapter of: "Will he take it private before he meets with Lux and Bill?"

LINK