Ngenla growth for FY24, based on Ascendis Skytrofa
Dec 8, 2023 21:39:56 GMT
icemandios, johnb, and 3 more like this
Post by lookingforatenbagger on Dec 8, 2023 21:39:56 GMT
Building on Luxetvox's post on the ASND thread using Skytrofa's reported quarter numbers, their growth rate was:
3Q22 = €12.3
4Q22 = €17.1, QoQ growth = 39%
1Q23 = €31.6, QoQ growth = 84%
2Q23 = €35.9, QoQ growth = 14%
3Q23 = €47.0, QoQ growth = 31%
YoY growth rate = 283%
I suspect Ngenla's revenue growth rate will be similar to ASND's SKYTROFA
SKYTROFA received FDA approval on August 25, 2021 and it took Ascendis' "little sales force that could" over a year to get to $12.3M, and they aren't 3 months in arrears for their royalty payments. Pfizer/Opko has forecast they'll be $8-10M, 1/2 a year after receiving approval up from $4.9M last quarter. Since Opko is ~3 months in arears, one should assume OPKO had a pretty good idea what teh numbers was going to be by the time of the CC.
As has been pointed out on the Opko thread once a client starts the process most stay for 3 to 4 years. So every quarter for the say next 14 quarters the current quarter's sales will be added on to the total from the previous quarter for at least the next two years. If we take SKYTROFA growth rates and flatten out them out the QoQ growth rate is ~40%. The following table gets a very rough guess of what Opko's QoQ revenue will look like:
4Q23 = $ 9.0 (split the difference)
1Q24 = $12.6
2Q24 = $17.6
3Q24 = $20.7
4Q24 = $34.5
Call it a total of $85M in FY24.
3Q22 = €12.3
4Q22 = €17.1, QoQ growth = 39%
1Q23 = €31.6, QoQ growth = 84%
2Q23 = €35.9, QoQ growth = 14%
3Q23 = €47.0, QoQ growth = 31%
YoY growth rate = 283%
I suspect Ngenla's revenue growth rate will be similar to ASND's SKYTROFA
SKYTROFA received FDA approval on August 25, 2021 and it took Ascendis' "little sales force that could" over a year to get to $12.3M, and they aren't 3 months in arrears for their royalty payments. Pfizer/Opko has forecast they'll be $8-10M, 1/2 a year after receiving approval up from $4.9M last quarter. Since Opko is ~3 months in arears, one should assume OPKO had a pretty good idea what teh numbers was going to be by the time of the CC.
As has been pointed out on the Opko thread once a client starts the process most stay for 3 to 4 years. So every quarter for the say next 14 quarters the current quarter's sales will be added on to the total from the previous quarter for at least the next two years. If we take SKYTROFA growth rates and flatten out them out the QoQ growth rate is ~40%. The following table gets a very rough guess of what Opko's QoQ revenue will look like:
4Q23 = $ 9.0 (split the difference)
1Q24 = $12.6
2Q24 = $17.6
3Q24 = $20.7
4Q24 = $34.5
Call it a total of $85M in FY24.
