ASND: Japanese P'ship for All Products

I find it, well, curious, that you seem to go out of your way to engage in what is clearly thinly veiled bashing of ASND, through references to recent stock price performance. Implicit in these observations is a comparison to the 2023 gains in Opko, to which you also allude on occasion. 

But if we take a moment to step from behind the grassy knoll, and pause our sniping, a picture emerges that reveals an unwarranted assassination. Yes it's true that Opko has had some relative outperformance over the past year vs ASND. But peel back the onion a bit and here's what you get...these are cumulative returns, not annual returns:

YTD Returns:     ASND  -16.3%   OPK  21.6% 
1 Year Returns: ASND -16%   OPK  3.76% (52 weeks)

2 Year Returns: ASND -27.81%  OPK  -60.75%

3 Year Returns: ASND  -39.4%  OPK  -64.5%

4 Year Returns: ASND  -11.2%  OPK  -4.7%

5 Year Returns: ASND  54%   OPK  -58%

ASND went public on 1/27/15 at $18. The return to shareholders since that date is 468%. Since 1/27/15 OPK stock price has fallen 86.7%, from $11.38, to today's $1.53 ish level.

Consider also that ASND had three equity raises since 2019: 3/5/19 @ $120; 7/7/20 @ $142; and 9/1/21 @ $160. Sure, one might say that investors in any of those offerings are in the red and, candidly, rather meaningfully. ASND management also tapped the convert market on 3/29/22, for $575 million, when the stock was $115-120 area. And the conversion premium was hefty. So, one might also say that ASND management was pretty shrewd, raising lots of money when they COULD, and not when they NEEDED it.

Now, ASND's shares outstanding went from 42.1 million on 12/31/18 to 57.1 million on 12/31/22, an increase of nearly 35.7%. Opko's share count went from 615.6 million to 772.6 million over that same period, a 25.5% increase. One might conclude that Opko had diluted investors only ~6.4% per yr over that 4 year span, while ASND has given investors ~8.9% dilution per annum in that span. 

But that would be VERY misleading. Because although ASND has raised equity 3 times since 2019, the TOTAL number of shares sold in those offerings was only 12.53 million shares. ASND therefore had a lot of latitude to engage in dilution, no matter the % per year. Opko, on the other hand, did not, and does not. ASND's cap structure still has a tremendous amount of optionality built into in, having still less than 60 million shares outstanding. 

Numbers matter. And numbers are the output of management decisions. The cumulative return numbers over the past 5 years, skewed 3 to 2 in favor of ASND are important of course, but it's the bigger picture that is more important. An unbiased observer would judge Skytrofa to have had a fairly successful launch, considering the Ascendis sales force is not, well, it's presumably not of the same calibre as the mighty PFE global marketing army. In fact, I would have been very pleased had the multiple revamps of the Rayaldee sales force achieved success similar to that of Ascendis in the first couples years since it was launched. But 7 years in, and Rayaldee sales for years have been like the NAV of a money market fund....pretty much unchanged. 

ASND management has signed a royalty agreement and recently a partnership for some of its drug assets. The company also has a fertile pipeline. 

So there are real, tangible reasons why ASND has a $5.9 billion market cap, and OPK has one that's not quite $1.2 billion. Many of those reasons are cited above. There's also analyst coverage, and management credibility.* 

As Opko investors, we really have no blessed idea about what kind of numbers to expect as revenue from Ngenla. Nor do we know how much fat (profit) will be on those bones. Details of gross margins on those revenues, and forecasts of that growth are are secret I suppose. One which we're not entitled to hear. So the race between Ngenla and Skytrofa has a long way to go, especially, especially, (yes I said it twice) how it impacts the financial statements of Opko. Because again, as Opko investors, that's all that matters. It really doesn't matter if PFE sales people will wipe the floor with those Ascendis rookies, or whether the HGH market grows at 3% or 7%. What NUMBERS hit our quarterly results are the only things that can make a difference in Opko's stock price. Right now, it's all a bit of a mystery..

Moves off 12-14 year lows in a stock can be very deceiving. Particularly if myopia is distracting you from the facts that easily demonstrate WHY those lows were put in in the first place.

*Show me those new contracts and new customers Elias. If you've delivered on those promises, and now don't want to share the news, then why did you make the statement? If you haven't yet realized what you promised, then I suggest you be more circumspect during the next call. 

I might suggest that ASND is ONE of our competitors in hGH. And hGH is possibly the the lessor of their Transcon platforms. Or not, but what does it matter?

There seems to be a notion that, if they succeed, we lose. Or, if you wish, if PFE loses, PFE is somehow diminished. Anybody who regularly watches news items about PFE knows very well that we amount to a nice, but not very important, addition to their successes. Which is to say, they and we are not do-or-die competitors. Neither one, PFE nor ASND, depend on hGH. ASND vs OPK is another story, but OPK is not driving the hGH bus.

It is telling me Opko is undervalued and ASND is overvalued. I see the makings of a bet here. Opko closed at $1.53 and ASND at $104.50. Which will gain more by percentage by 12/31/24? I say Opko. 

No. It isn't. It is obviously a comparison between the future share price of two companies.   

I am not impressed with "a buck 99" or any other strawmen you care to build. It's simple. Name a period of over six months starting today in which you believe ASND will do better on a percentage basis than Opko.