Average analyst estimate for 2017

The one thing I know about Analyst is, they don't know S@%T. 

Back in the day (and of course this time it is different), a newsletter guy or a sales rep for ML would send out predictions to a long list of rubes.

The pitch was "if I am right, I hope I earn your trust and we can do biz in the future."

Half would get a prediction that XYZ would go up, and the other half would get a prediction that XYZ would go down.

Working from a big list, 50% would see the sales rep as being "tuned in." Maybe 10% would become new clients suckers.

Of the 40% that weren't completely gullible, they'd do it again. Half up, half down on some ABC stock. And that would do it. This time more than 10% would become clients suckers.

Nowadays, we have analysts. Used to be analysts would be investigators. They'd crawl down into a sewer or stand around sweating in some factory looking for facts. These days, they sit on the fat asses and ask a company questions. And then they crunch some conservative numbers and come out with some safe "predictions."

These days, there is a "Chinese Wall," which supposedly separates the analytical people from the sales people. Sounds good. Sounds like "The SEC is here to protect you." It's BS. There is no enforcement. No consequences (unless you figure a penny on the dollar fine is enforcement).

What is billed as enforcement is nothing more or less than Tony Soprano exacting "tribute" from the illegal toxic waste dumping gang. Some HF or more likely a bank screws up (which means they went too far and got "caught"), and the SEC some years later fines them. No admission of guilt. The bank pays a penny on the dollar of ill-gotten gains, the SEC smiles, says thank you..."don't do that again" and "we'll expect the same the next time."

Momma, don't let your babies to grow up to be cowboys. Let them be bankers and lawyers and such.

What type of revenue estimate would you think is more realistic, what type of revenue growth do you think reflects 4k and Rayaldee. I am not defending the analysts estimates, but fact is, given the KNOWN facts their estimates are for about 15% revenue growth next year. Last quarter opko had revenue of about 357million, backing out the one time 50m gets us to 307m right. Legacy OPKO might give us 25m as a low, to 40m on the high end and nothing there is going to rocket earnings.

Opko's guidance for 4k = zero, and so far reimbursement is a great big question mark.

Opko's guidance for Rayaldee so far is again = zero, and we have no pricing, insurance info, or established sales..

So based on those TWO knowns the analysts should do what??? Well they did what in fact is the right thing to do, ASSume NOTHING. They are figuring OPKO will continue to grow revenue at about 15% which is in line with the MOST recent BRLI growth trends.

Like I said, I am not defending, or condemning their estimates, but given all THE KNOWNS, they are what they are, a conservative guess which is GREAT. I would rather SEE THEM raise in the future than lower numbers.

The other point about all this is OPKO has one idea on Rayaldee, and NOT ONE analyst agrees at this point. Well, sort of. There is always the high estimate that MUST be tossing a few bucks into those sales.

The real disconnect is that OPKO sees the RAY potential market as X ( 12B ) when they add up all potential patients, and the analysts see it as Y ( about 200m ) when they add up all currently treated D analogue patients. The disconnect is HUGE, and until OPKO sells a couple RAY prescriptions, NO ONE KNOWS, NO ONE at OPKO and NOT one ANALYST has a clue who is right.

I certainly don't. SORT of DITTO for 4k, really, it is the same issue. We think IT will be, should be, has to be X sales at X price, but then we get an issue like PALMETTO. So what should we BAKE in as 4k revenue??? I have NO IDEA at ALL, do you??

So we can trash this 14-15% revenue growth estimate as LAME, or as investors LOOK at it and try to figure out how they ALL COULD be so WRONG.

FACT is, if you give an estimate right now, if each OPKO board member pipes up and gives one, BUT were told they CAN only GIVE that estimate ON KNOWN FACTS, umm, you might come out with a number about 1.47 billion for 2017 and state I am fairly certain they can grow revenue about 15%.

You might then figure, if they get insurance coverage on 4k, and EVER UTTER an actual sales number, I can up my rev. target. IF they state in Q1 that RAY is indeed taking share from the BIG BIG pie, not the tiny slice the analysts see today, then we can up our target again. UNTIL then, BE THANKFUL they are NOT GIVING a 2 billion revenue number, then dropping it to 1.47B, I am glad it is achievable, and NOT BASED on WHAT I WANT.

Not agreeing with the analysts, or condemning them, as an investor, I am keeping an open mind, WAITING on information before I throw my BRICKS.

PS. MY dog KAI, see that look, that is the I love OPKO look, no doubt about it.  ME, I see what I want to see.

I think you can use Rolapitant royalties as your insurance policy.