GMDA - undervalued

This is one that I own thatis way undervalued. I am adding when i have free cash.


$GMDA FDA-approved #Omisirge

Valuation / Acquisition price estimate at this time…

>/= 10,000 allo-HSCT per year forward

2,000 patients (</= 20% TAM) x 338K = $676M rev

Discount that “peak sale” estimate by 50% (due to execution risk & no sales track record thus far) = $338M rev

3x (peak sales multiple) $338M = $1.014B

…divided by 106M OS = $9.57 per share

$1B buys you a low end estimated $338M annual revenue x ~12 years = $4.1B rev

Caveats:
1. They have done remarkably well getting 70% of both public + private insurance coverage & fully onboarding 8 transplant centers while actively working with 40 centers…all as of June 29.

2. No ex-US Omisirge value

3. No pipeline value

They won’t sell for <$9.57 per share.

So I hope someone is willing to partner.

If they can just achieve analyst estimates (similar to the company’s estimates) = 20% of 10,000 allo-HSCT patients annually.

2,000 x 338K = $676M annual rev x 12 years = $8.1B revenue

A rational price to sales ratio for a biotech is ~5.

So even at $338M revenue annual with a P/S of 5 and 106M OS, the stock can reasonably trade ~ $15.94.

If dilution by another 100M shares…so then OS is 206M, then with all other assumptions above the same, you get ~$8.20 per share.

If they can't sell 1,000 doses at peak, something is terribly wrong.

~1,200 no match patients per year
~500 UCB transplants per year (as of recent stats)

Just have to capture 59% of those.

What am I missing… this seems undervalued.