ASND Q3 Results

investors.ascendispharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ascendis-pharma-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results

"As of September 30, 2022, Ascendis Pharma had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling €935.1 million compared to €789.6 million as of December 31, 2021. As of September 30, 2022, Ascendis Pharma had 57,027,240 ordinary shares outstanding."

Do companies often compare their 3Q22 cash position to their 4Q21 cash position? Not to worry ASND posts their 3Q21 PR on their website: "As of September 30, 2021, Ascendis Pharma had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of €929.9 million compared to €641.3 million as of June 30, 2021. As of September 30, 2021, Ascendis Pharma had 56,877,723 ordinary shares outstanding."

They have €5M more than last year.  That would be great except they had a $500M convertible senior note offering last spring. They also advertised a share buy back, but there are more share outstanding at the end of 3Q22 than the end of 3Q21.

Highlights on SKYTROFA®

Wedbush Raises Ascendis Pharma's Price Target to $151 From $144 After Q3 SKYTROFA Sales Exceed Estimate

SKYTROFA® U.S. revenue more than doubled quarter-to-quarter again, reaching €12.3 million in the third quarter,

“With our improved commercial execution and emphasis on SKYTROFA’s unique patient-focused product strengths, I believe we are advancing our goal to build SKYTROFA into the leading brand and expand the pediatric growth hormone market,” said Jan Mikkelsen, Ascendis Pharma’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

SKYTROFA® (lonapegsomatropin-tcgd) U.S. revenue more than doubled quarter-to-quarter again to €12.3 million in the third quarter. As of September 30, 2022, the cumulative number of new patient prescriptions increased to over 2,400.

Endocrinology Rare Disease commercial center for Germany planned in Munich; Skytrofa® (lonapegsomatropin) launch in Germany expected mid-2023.

Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results

Total revenue for the third quarter was €15.3 million compared to €1.1 million in the same quarter of 2021. Revenue included U.S. revenue from SKYTROFA, as well as license, clinical supply and services provided to third parties, primarily VISEN Pharmaceuticals. The increase in revenue compared to the same period last year was primarily attributable to the €12.3 million commercial revenue from SKYTROFA.

Research and development (R&D) costs for the third quarter were €97.4 million compared to €58.8 million during the same period in 2021. Lower R&D costs in the third quarter of 2021 reflect a one-time €53.7 million reversal of pre-launch inventories, which had previously been recognized as research and development costs. The third quarter 2022 R&D costs also reflect the manufacturing of pre-launch inventories for TransCon PTH and an increase in employee and other costs attributable to organizational growth.

Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses for the third quarter were €60.7 million compared to €39.3 million during the same period in 2021. Higher SG&A expenses were primarily due to an increase in commercial and administrative personnel following the launch of SKYTROFA in the U.S. and preparation for future product launches.

Tomayto, tomahto.

Thus far, the company has managed its cash needs and cap structure brilliantly. Less than 60 million shares outstanding, with at least a year's worth of cash. They have plenty of optionality to add to cash through more equity. The stock is now trading over $120, and has well outperformed the market this year, down high single digits (mid 9% at the moment).If the market rallies into year end, and ASND rises further, they could easily raise another quarter billion with just a mere 2 million share secondary. Or, there are always partnerships and/or buyouts that might come along....as I said, optionality, or simply cash needs becoming moot. With the clinical trials timelines proceeding nicely with great execution, the company is surely sitting in a good position.

Yup, they're burning cash. And yup, they've got a poop ton of it, and can easily raise more. That equation adds up to a now nearly $7 billion market cap with today's move.

I have no idea whether their products and pipeline are great assets. But people a lot smarter than I am apparently are convinced of that. I, on the other hand, thought Rayaldee was addressing a multi-billion market, and that a lab on a cassette was a paradigm shift. So go figure.

Amusing. Nice try tho. It was 9/14 when the proposition was made. Intra-day, ASND was $102.40 and Opko was $2.14. Lots can happen between now and whatever endpoint one chooses. None of which is certain, thereby making betting a pointless pursuit. One thing is certain though; even if FDA gives Ngenla the nod, Opko has fallen so much this year that even with a Lazarus-like recovery, investors will have very heavy losses this year....likely larger than NASDAQ declines.

And now you're extending the optionality by six months.

You can continue the pinhead dancing and the red herring bets. For my part, I'll focus on Opko's results:

1. Is the base testing business growing?
2. How's Scarlet feeling? Does it have a fever?
3. Is it more likely that I will start at quarterback for the Eagles on Sunday, or that Opko's testing business will generate cash from operations?
4. How's that R&D day coming along Elias?
5. Has Vifor sold any Rayaldee, or Pfizer any Ngenla? If yes, will we be able to discern how much money has flowed to Opko therefrom? In other words, will there be any transparency in the financial statements from those important business partnerships?
6. Will there be any excitement on the call, or should I preserve the audio for soporific endeavors?

Most stocks.

With exceptions. While meaningfully lower than its all time high (24% lower in fact), ASND is more than 100% above its 52 week lows, and now down only 7.2% std.

Investors clearly have one view about ASND, and an altogether different one about Opko.

I appreciate the cordial back and forth, and certainly HOPE for a double on an FDA approval, I think that outcome is perhaps a bit less likely than "not out of the question."

Look, I'll grant that ASND's revenues are still nascent, but the company is clearly doing something right, and shareholders are voting in favor of that. As a seasoned investor, you of course know that, no matter the backdrop, a case can always be made that our equity dabblings are bets in a market of stocks, rather than a stock market. Any way you slice the pizza, ASND as a stock has treated investors better, much much better, than has Opko. And that's because the company management has authored such benevolent treatment.

Now I'm going back to watching my home state race for US Senate, and wondering how many of my neighbors seem so enamored of the unholy offspring of Uncle Fester and Lerch.