Will history repeat itself? A must read.
Aug 11, 2016 6:25:08 GMT
icemandios and investobefree22 like this
Post by tomsylver on Aug 11, 2016 6:25:08 GMT
Aug 9, 2016 20:15:26 GMT @burnaka said:
...RAYALDEE, is entering a 12 billion market for CKD/SHPT??? Where in the ckd market, or is it really the shpt market is that 12B currently being spent, what % to correct D insufficiency??? There are several competing drugs to correct shpt, and their percent of this 12B is ....?? SMALL.
MARKET SIZE is a PHRASE I REALLY wish they WOULD ban from all conference calls, that phrase makes MY EYES glaze OVER.
Now do not think for a minute I am not enthusiastic about OPK. I am FAR more Opkomistic than the analysts who see RAY hitting 200m in sales by 2020, I think it will be much much higher, in the 400m-800m range. WHY the BIG spread??? I think we can take the OTC segment big time, and fact is few Drs. try to correct D at ALL. 2/3 of the patients get no therapy so I think our
" NICHE Market " is huge, well, about 400m-800m.
“RAYALDEE fills a void in the available treatment options for the approximately 9 million American adults with SHPT, stage 3 or 4 chronic kidney disease and vitamin D insufficiency, a potential market estimate to exceed $12 billion annually. The current standard of care is high dose vitamin D supplementation, which is an approach that is neither FDA approved nor demonstrated to be safe and effective in this population. Survey data indicates that 75% of RAYALDEE’s target market is treated with high-dose vitamin D supplementation.”
The numbers are also not entirely clear to me!
If I simple divide $12B by 9M patients I would get $1,333/patient annually. 1,333 is a bit low compared to the reported 5,000 or 10,000 they said in older calls/presentations.
On the other hand, if I multiply 9M patients with $5,000 or $10,000 the market would be 45B or 90B. That would be about 4 or 8 times of the 12B.
Because supposedly, now a vitamin D treatment costs $3,000 - $5,000 annually, there is huge potential. Therefore I do not think we get only 400m-800m, because that would mean, Rayaldee only get´s 133.333 - 266.666 patients (at $3,000 costs). That would be less than 3% of max.
However, I agree with you, that the figures on market size are quite confusing…