SI 3/31 down 10.7M

Huge volume after hours :
TIME PRICE SHARES
16:59:41 $4.05 1
16:59:33 $4.05 1
16:59:22 $4.05 1
16:58:15 $4.05 1
16:57:17 $4.05 1
16:56:36 $4.04 1
16:55:45 $4.04 3
16:53:44 $4.05 1
16:53:10 $4.04 4
16:53:03 $4.05 1
16:52:57 $4.05 1
16:52:18 $4.05 1
16:52:00 $4.04 1
16:51:10 $4.05 1
16:50:36 $4.07 4
16:50:33 $4.05 1
16:49:00 $4.05 1
16:48:32 $4.05 3
16:48:07 $4.06 1

So, if we take the 7/29 close of $5.79*, the stock is down 26.6%** vs today. 

The short interest in that time has dropped 42%. 

Therefore, basic math tells you that when short interest is at 0, the stock will be 63.3% lower than the 7/29 close of $5.79, or $2.14. Makes perfect sense.

*Using the close two days before the reported date.

**The stock was VERY volatile in that time period leading up to the FIRST ever profits in the company's history. After rising from $2.78 on 6/26 to a $4.60 close on 7/17, it then experienced a wild two weeks of closes between $4.94 and $5.96, hitting an intraday high of $6.47 on 7/21.


During that July 2020 period, Opko reported an inaugural profit, and has since embarked on a path of consistent, yet puzzlingly stagnant, net income quarterly results (in a few weeks we'll see the actual numbers of the latest in now four consecutive positive bottom lines). So, the company has made made about $100 million bucks in the 12 months since last April 1. And, while the stock has risen from $1.21 on that date to $4.06 today, it certainly feels like it should be higher. Especially since it had some meaningful visits into the high $5s, and some flybys in the $6s. 

Price earnings multiples, and other standard valuation measures aside, there just seems to be a lid, at times a manhole cover, sitting atop the price. As G-man points out, shorts have covered nearly 60 million shares, there has been +/-$100 million in net income, there could be ~$200 million in milestones and royalties coming in during Q4 2021, yet the space-time gravity well maintains its downward pull on the stock. Most here know my thesis for this. But given the facts and highly likely prospects I've cited above, I'd welcome any and all explanations of those who think I'm wrong, and can offer other reasons to account for the stagnation of the stock at what seems such a depressed price.

Jefferies is not short, or at least not the 30 million shares to which you refer. The convertible arbitrage funds who own the converts are the entities who are short vs their long bond position. Jefferies was the conduit through which the company loaned shares to the funds who bought the converts.

Lots of mental masturbation available for the short numbers versus PPS in the last two years. Feel free to pick your pleasure, but note 81M is just about the same number as when the bond offering took place.

03/31/21......81,558,197, PPS = $4.38
03/15/21......92,257,368, PPS = $4.72
02/26/21......96,604,588, PPS = $4.50
02/12/21......97,426,311, PPS = $5.61
01/29/21....102,548,478, PPS = $5.41
01/15/21....104,766,092, PPS = $4.55

12/31/20....115,230,234, PPS = $3.95
12/15/20....123,663,888, PPS = $4.55
11/30/20....127,120,774, PPS = $4.64
11/13/20....130,224,800, PPS = $3.89
10/30/20....135,808,581, PPS = $3.52
10/15/20....130,941,605, PPS = $4.22
09/30/20....127,928,021, PPS = $3.69
09/15/20....131,672,505, PPS = $3.15
08/31/20....130,134,356, PPS = $3.24
08/14/20....135,360,174, PPS = $4.80
07/31/20....140,405,931, PPS = $5.15
07/15/20....137,172,367, PPS = $4.08

06/30/20....129,491,136, PPS = $3.41
06/15/20....117,003,978, PPS = $2.60
05/29/20....109,535,240, PPS = $2.28
05/15/20....106,473,913, PPS = $2.62
04/30/20....101,139,211, PPS = $2.22
04/15/20....101,610,375, PPS = $1.63
03/31/20.....98,381,266, PPS = $1.34
03/13/20…...95,302,375, PPS = $1.90
02/28/20…..84,038,752, PPS = $1.50
02/14/20…..83,564,780, PPS = $1.57
01/31/20…..83,309,391, PPS = $1.45
01/15/20…..80,683,508, PPS = $1.55

12/31/19.....80,771,057, PPS = $1.47
12/13/19.....76,562,546
11/29/19…..74,378,763
11/15/19…..75,509,145
10/31/19.....74,550,313
10/15/19.....84,770,369
09/30/19.....85,983,441
09/13/19.....88,964,166
08/30/19…..89,211,376
08/15/19…..91,152,243
07/31/19…..87,846,438
07/15/19…..90,781,037

06/28/19…..91,104,699
06/14/19.....94,410,885
05/31/19.....95,670,279
05/15/19.....91,247,369
04/30/19.....87,047,375
04/15/19.....86,542,383
03/29/19…..84,990,147, PPS = $2.61
03/15/19.....81,261,939, PPS = $2.51 ******** Bond offering 30K shares loaned
02/28/19.....73,801,069, PPS = $2.55
02/15/19…..64,912,242
01/31/19.....59,146,878
01/15/19.....59,300,619

12/31/18…..56,212,686 PPS= $3.01 **********SEC Sham settled

I will just add that iBorrow has shown an elevated available to borrow, over 3M, for a few days now. And a low interest rate..

My guess is (absent anything else positive from the co.) That SI will tick up again in the coming weeks.

Do you have a point beyond the Street has punished for buying BRL and the slowness of the operation?  Doesn't the falling short position in the light of rising prices indicate that is at an end?  

IMHO Elon Musk committed securities fraud when he merged SolarCity into tesla, but that is just as irrelevant as your comparison, iMHO. 

Incorrect. I was merely quoting, and satirizing, the language of the sagacious Bagger.




If you characterize statements of fact as jabs, well, a rose by any other name....