Lockdowns Not Supported by Data

I don't disagree with the premise of what they suppose.  But, my personal belief is that this virus was spreading much faster and earlier than we detected or were able to test for, by the time some "lock-downs" were implemented, it was WAY too late if the metric was to "stop the spread".  My opinion at the time was to slow the spread to avoid the run on hospital beds.  As an ordinary healthy individual, I have not been worried for myself with COVID.  But, I was worried about an accident (not in the vehicular sense alone) in which I needed emergency care, showed up to the an overtaxed and largely unavailable emergency room that was dealing with COVID.  Because, the Golden Hour in a traumatic event is a real thing.  In a "worst case" scenario, there would be no way to guarantee you would receive the level of care we as Americans have come to expect from our great emergency room nurses and doctors. 

Also, "lock-downs" were never implemented in the strict sense of the term.  I envision a true "lock-down" where the military shows up with razor wire, cordons the area, and airdrops supplies in and let's the Lord of the Flies take over until the disease runs it's course.

So, both terms (and how they are used in the media, as sensationalists) are not well understood.  We never did a true lock-down (nor could we given the fast, vast spread) and never "stopped" the spread because it was impossible.  I still think many places did the best they could with the data they had available at the time.  And continue to do so.

I don't like it anymore than anyone else.  But public health officials can't make everyone "happy" with something like this, all they can do is apply measures that apply to "the most" (and lowest common denominator ) of the population.  The rest of us need to "figure it out" and stay safe and take care of our families the best we can.  For those that can't, there was $3T ($10T with fed leverage) pumped in to try and help.

At the end of the day, we will get through this, we will survive, we will adapt, and we will learn.  I will get off the soap box with two thoughts:  We still don't know the long term effects of this AND this was not the "big one" that is coming that kills MASS amounts of people.  So, let's view this optimistically and develop the National Preparedness Plans (and on down to the local level) to be ready for it.  From a policy perspective, and infrastructure (National internet grid, better supply chains, etc).

Forever the optimist.

It makes sense since nobody except China has tried a REAL lockdown.  And even theirs wasn't a true lock down.  The opportunity lockdown was China in December.  Everything since has been to slow it down to give medical science a chance to catch up, figure out the BEST way to treat it (notice how intubation/ventilators are not really recommended much anymore).  We are getting more and more knowledge about how this interacts with our system.

Just yesterday I read about the Bradykinin Hypothesis.  Which is a modification of the idea of the Cytokine storm affecting the lungs.  It was developed at the Oak Ridge supercomputer by running 40K+ genetic samples with several million combinations.  It took them a week (with the second fastest computer in the world to date) to find additional information that will potentially aid who is vulnerable, why, and potentially treatments.  Ironically, their conclusion was that several low cost available treatments may be the best remedy.

Anyway, slowing things down helps with this gives people time to conduct research, make a hypothesis, test it, research some more, make a recommendation and see what works.  Every week or month we gain more knowledge.


Bradykinin Hypothesis

If only there was a company that would get started when they say they will...

They need to prove that Ray is superior to regular OTC vitamin D or you need to raise it fast and to a dangerous level that only an extended release version can achieve safely. In other words, prove it.

That is sort of comical that you say that...given our not so fleet current study.