OPKO Renal - CafePharma

My mistake, you are right. The 6,600 is not a consistent number. Sorry for the mix up there.

The $550 per TRx number was used by Steve Rubin on one of the calls this fall. It represents what OPKO will sell one TRx for. The $6600 is roughly what one patient represents in sales using the drug for one year to OPKO.

As far as getting 100% refills. We totally understand that it is very difficult to predict those numbers. We do not know what the Refill rate will be. This is one of the reasons why Steve and Dr. Frost stated that they would not give any projections on sales of Rayaldee until the summer of 2017 conference call.

What I was actually trying to show how small the percentage of the available market it would take to reach the 20 TRxs per (Week or month) that the salesperson was talking about.

You constantly have to make assumptions when you do this kind of analysis. I picked 10 weeks because it's a good round number.

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SO, here is the fix!
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Being in sales most of my life I totally agree with the 80/20 rule as submitted above. The first question I asked myself was about the goal not where it was posted.

When you specify goals and they have to be reachable but not to reachable. I use to set company wide goals that I knew 50 of the sales people could reach.

I'm using 20 per week vs per month. If you think it was 20 per month just divide my numbers by 4.5.

20 new prescriptions per week per salesman is not an unreasonable and reachable number.

Do the math on that.

A TRx is good for 30 days, so after 4.3 weeks you would get a new TRx. I am calling these Refills TRxs

Week 1 Refills TRxs - 0, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 20

Week 2 Refills TRxs - 0, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 40

Week 3 Refills TRxs - 0, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 60

Week 4 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 100

Week 5 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 140

Week 6 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 180

Week 7 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 220

Week 8 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 240

Week 9 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 280

Week 10 Refills TRxs - 20, New TRxs - 20, Total TRxs - 320

The presentation stated that in November they have a 70 person sales and marketing team. Let's say 50 of them are actually sales people. (Total estimation on my part)

In 10 weeks you get 320 (total TRxs per salesperson) x 50 (salesperson) equals 16,000 company TRxs times $550 equals $8,800,000 in sales in 10 weeks. This is with Refills.

It would only take 10,000 patients out of the 9,000,000 patients that are dealing with this. (. 11% - one tenth of a percent) That's spread out over the 10 weeks to hit these numbers.

So all, the company is asking is let's capture 10,000 (200 per salesperson times 50 salesperson) patients of the currently available market in ten weeks. Is this too high?

Simply you have to set goals. It's 2 new per day. Doesn't sound too unreasonable. Especially when you have one Doctor Who might have 100 patients who believes in Rayaldee and put them all on it right away. Or 50 of the them - Now you don't have to work for 2.5 weeks.

Note 20 per month works out to just under 1 a day! 4.4 per week per salesperson.