Post by lookingforatenbagger on Feb 13, 2024 17:37:05 GMT
WSUcougarBill wrote, "....now I’m sure this is where the disconnect comes in by the way with Opko senior management. This is how little they understand the inner workings of the market. They think these are probably savvy investors who are excited about their pipeline opportunities and that are looking to harvest the embedded call option at $1.15 that the convertible carries and that is not what is happening here.
The guys that bought those bonds are going to let the stock float up to the $1.15 range and then they’re going to begin clubbing it like a baby fur seal until they get it back down around a dollar and that’s where they cover. And they plan on doing that probably three or four times in the next twelve months and as you have all seen before the air goes out of the balloon with OPKO I mean the trading volume, you know, we’re going to be trading two, two and a half million shares a day and at a dollar a share the guy on the trading desk has a platinum American Express card he can put the entire days volume as a charge to his AMEX. So they can so easily accomplish this that its – and we explained just exactly this to them in the meeting and Anthony has since reiterated it in an e-mail directed directly at Dr. Zerhouni telling them that this is what they signed up for."
"Is there enough value to risk in Opko to hunker down and take the coming clubbing?"
My opinion is that Phil wants to see this stock above his cost basis, and out of penny stock territory, before he retires as CEO.
He doesn’t have time to discover the new holy grail that is going to magically transform the company. So now his only remaining choice is to swallow his pride, admit his mistakes, and allow the company to survive.
This company is locked out of the capital markets for the foreseeable future. A PIPE at these prices would be the final nail in the coffin. When you see the Q4 numbers you are going to realize that break even for the lab is much further out than they have been representing.
So to Lux’s point time is their enemy. Everyday they take one more step towards the gallows that Phil has built.
If they act quickly they can still operate from a position of power. If they wait, the cost of anything they want to do goes up, and the $ realized from any corporate action goes down.
To your question yes there’s sufficient value to warrant hanging on. We gave them the club, let’s go take it away.
Management knows what Opko's share of Ngenla revenue will be for 1Q24 (it being a quarter in arrears) and should have a decent insight into 2Q24. Is it possible Ngenla revenue is significantly greater than Wall Street estimates?
I have had another thought about the 2029 convert. From the 1/4/24 8K: "Certain entities affiliated with Phillip Frost, M.D., the Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jane H. Hsiao, Ph.D., MBA, the
Company’s Vice-Chairman and Chief Technical Officer, as well as additional existing holders, have agreed to sign definitive agreements to acquire, in a
concurrent private placement, approximately $71.1 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s Convertible Senior Notes due 2029..."
Dr. Frost bought/controls about 35% of the 2029 Convert. It seems to me he just made $100M to $150M or more on the deal, depending on Opko's value a year from now. In worst case they are first in line to get paid their principle and interest. Could it be as simple as that?
I hope the SEC would prevent "certain entities affiliated with Phillip Frost" from blanently taking part in the clubbing, but my faith in government is somewhat lacking these days.