Post by wsucougarbill on Nov 8, 2023 22:22:58 GMT
Good news, I don’t disagree with your assumptions, and if you add in the “rest of the world” those numbers double (hGH is 1/2 US and 1/2 everyone else).
I think in the short term we hit $200m to Opko per year, $1.3b gross, and then we follow 3 distinct growth paths from there. The first is simple CAGR, followed by adherence, and the most important element of growth that is not well publicized, persistence.
Eventually we end up at around $250m, and growing at 4% a year.
When you look at the difference in marketing savvy, payer relations, and overall costs it’s hard not to see us breezing past ASND like they are standing still. Yet they are awarded a multiple that we haven’t seen in a decade or more.
But alas we are Opko, that is our lot in life. The company is so dismissive of anyone outside their own doors that even our own rag tag batch of bucket shop analysts were surprised to learn on Mondays call that the NGENLA numbers were always going to be reported one quarter in arrears. I can understand the reason that might be necessary, but why do you have to wait until someone ferrets it out, why not disclose that last Q? They always give the appearance that they are trying to hide something so that no one can figure out what is actually going on.
So in my mind the gap between you and lux is this. The NGENLA gross profit share to Opko can ONLY be quantified by Pfizer, period. They know the anticipated uptake, they know the revenue capture from lack of adherence, and they know what the persistence levels will look like going forward based on what shot number from the daily dosing is the “Mendoza” line.
Warren Buffet has famously said if you want to know what something is worth, sell some of it. ASND has done that.
Right now I think it’s fair to say that no one on planet earth besides you, me, and maybe a few others think that those numbers are valid, ergo any estimates of present value are currently meaningless.
I think in the short term we hit $200m to Opko per year, $1.3b gross, and then we follow 3 distinct growth paths from there. The first is simple CAGR, followed by adherence, and the most important element of growth that is not well publicized, persistence.
Eventually we end up at around $250m, and growing at 4% a year.
When you look at the difference in marketing savvy, payer relations, and overall costs it’s hard not to see us breezing past ASND like they are standing still. Yet they are awarded a multiple that we haven’t seen in a decade or more.
But alas we are Opko, that is our lot in life. The company is so dismissive of anyone outside their own doors that even our own rag tag batch of bucket shop analysts were surprised to learn on Mondays call that the NGENLA numbers were always going to be reported one quarter in arrears. I can understand the reason that might be necessary, but why do you have to wait until someone ferrets it out, why not disclose that last Q? They always give the appearance that they are trying to hide something so that no one can figure out what is actually going on.
So in my mind the gap between you and lux is this. The NGENLA gross profit share to Opko can ONLY be quantified by Pfizer, period. They know the anticipated uptake, they know the revenue capture from lack of adherence, and they know what the persistence levels will look like going forward based on what shot number from the daily dosing is the “Mendoza” line.
Warren Buffet has famously said if you want to know what something is worth, sell some of it. ASND has done that.
Right now I think it’s fair to say that no one on planet earth besides you, me, and maybe a few others think that those numbers are valid, ergo any estimates of present value are currently meaningless.