Post by lookingforatenbagger on Jun 22, 2021 15:28:24 GMT
Wait a minute now...someone didn't get the memo to get the PR right. I am not going to copy the whole 8K, but look what jumped out right away:
The license grant to Nicoya covers the therapeutic and preventative use of the Product for secondary hyperparathyroidism (“SHPT”) in non-dialysis (“ND”) and hemodialysis chronic kidney disease patients (the “Field”)
That part was missing from the PR. They basically gave away the indication to China which the option to Vifor costs $550M...I wonder if that will lead to some uncomfortable discussions and a potential change to the vifor deal.
Not to mention CKD 5 was supposedly the more LUCRATIVE market for Rayaldee...
It's possible I do not understand the nuances of non-dialysis or hemodialysis as applied to the Chinese market, but I thought these terms were medically universal.
My concern is this: The US dialysis market is valued at ~$35B. The Chinese dialysis market is $7B (and growing rapidly due to huge, aging population). Vifor agreed to an option for $500M for the US rights to CKD 5, shouldn't the value of the CKD 5 market in China be close to 20% of the US? Shouldn't that indication fetch close to $100M alone? In addition to royalties? I am seriously concerned that soon Vifor is going to renegotiate the terms of this option at a lower price.
I am really concerned that this dilutes whatever value Rayaldee has for CKD 5. Not to mention the remaining time to complete the Phase 2B study after a 2 year 44 patient 2A.
In China, OPKO does not have the ability to market Rayaldee in any market and needed a partner. I assume the royalty structure is different for Vifor and Nicoya, but we don't know.